Thursday, October 1, 2009

A win for the "quantity theory of foreign policy"?

Such is the name the Economist has given the foreign policy actions adopted by the Obama administration in recent months. And the magazine's scribes have a point. It does seem as if, particulary of late, he has been nearly everywhere, meeting with everyone, and speaking on everything. Last week, President Obama gave a robust and deep-welled speech on global climate change and policy that also touched on world poverty, terrorism, more broadly those agents not willing to work for productive change. Only the night before he oversaw a meeting between the president of the Palestinian authority and the Israeli prime minister that might have been slightly less robust. He pulled the plug on a poorly schemed missle-defense system that was a charmed piece of the previous administration's foreign-policy plans, allowing the itchy Russians to stop scratching at least one spot and seemed to secure something of their support in dealing with the issue of Iran's controversial nuclear program. At the P5+1 meeting with Iranian officials in Geneva this past morning, according to late news from the NYT, Iran has agreed to ship the bulk of its enriched uranium to Russia for processing into nuclear fuel. Of course it must obviously be pointed out that "if Iran has secret stockpiles of enriched uranium, however, the accomplishment would be hollow, a senior American official conceded." Yes . . . yes, that would diminish the significance of the thing indeed and - oh, how does it go? - if "ifs" and "buts" were candy and nuts, it would be a wonderful Christmas - or some such rot. And if we really want to cut to brass tacks, recent history provides enough example that in the end, no matter the assurances to the contrary, one side at least always has overwhelming, bludgeoning force at its beck and call.

However, those risks are always there - and are so patently obvious on all sides that they bear little use in mentioning save for bet-hedging or scare-mongering - in diplomacy. I am no foreign policy expert, but at this first blush, I cannot see how this is not a victory for the quantity theory of foreign policy.

-fp